Source: Gregory Mannarino | Date: March 06, 2026

Investment Research Summary: Gregory Mannarino - March 2026

Investment Thesis

The U.S. government is signaling a major policy shift where rising consumer prices (particularly gasoline) will be tolerated or even accepted as necessary for broader strategic objectives, likely tied to geopolitical/war priorities. Citizens are being conditioned to accept inflation pain as the administration explicitly deprioritizes domestic cost-of-living concerns.

Sentiment

BEARISH (on U.S. consumer purchasing power and standard of living)

Time Horizon

MEDIUM-TERM (3-12 months)

Key Takeaways

Trump administration has pivoted from emphasizing lower gas prices to openly dismissing rising fuel costs as "not a concern"
The narrative shift signals that inflation/price increases will be tolerated in service of unstated "more important" objectives (likely military/geopolitical)
War/geopolitical tensions previously seen as "overseas headlines" are now manifesting as domestic inflation
Policy priorities have shifted away from consumer welfare toward strategic objectives that supersede citizen economic concerns
Investors should prepare for sustained inflationary pressure with political cover, not intervention

Market Views

Gasoline/Energy prices: Expected to rise significantly ("a lot") with no policy intervention planned
Inflation trajectory: Domestic inflation will accelerate as geopolitical conflicts translate into higher consumer prices
Policy response: Administration signaling it will not act to curb price increases despite campaign rhetoric
Narrative management: Official messaging shifting from "prices are falling" to "rising prices are acceptable/necessary"

Assets Discussed

Crude Oil/Gasoline - Implicitly bullish (prices rising with no policy pushback)
U.S. Dollar purchasing power - Bearish (inflation accelerating, consumer costs rising)
Consumer discretionary sector - Bearish (rising costs will squeeze household budgets)

Risk Factors

Potential political backlash could force policy reversal if inflation becomes acute enough
Energy price spikes could trigger recession, ultimately reducing demand and prices
International supply disruptions could be resolved faster than anticipated, easing price pressure

Notable Quotes

Trump: "I don't have any concern about it. If they rise, they rise. But this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit."
Mannarino: "The message is that the people in charge are telling you the pain is acceptable and you will accept it. You have no choice... You don't matter. It's the objective."

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