Source: Finding Finance | Date: March 04, 2026

Investment Research Summary: Finding Finance Commodities Update

Investment Thesis

The video argues that commodities are entering a significant breakout phase, particularly crude oil which is beginning "a very big move," while precious metals and uranium remain in healthy uptrends despite needing short-term consolidation after vertical rallies.

Sentiment

BULLISH

Time Horizon

MEDIUM-TERM (3-12 months, with some multi-year views on emerging markets)

Key Takeaways

Crude oil has broken out of a consolidation pattern and is positioned for a major rally, potentially to $120+ or higher
Precious metals miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) need consolidation after vertical moves—current levels are not ideal entry points
Industrial metals (copper, nickel) and uranium are in confirmed uptrends with strong technical setups
Rising yields (2-year, 10-year breaking higher) will pressure the dollar and support commodity currencies
Avoid chasing vertical rallies; wait for retest pullbacks to support before entering positions

Market Views

Oil price targets: $120-150+ possible, calling this potentially "the big third wave three" to multi-hundred dollar levels
Yield curve re-inverting: 2-year/10-year spread widening signals inflation returning (higher commodity prices)
Dollar: Neutral near-term; watching yield breakouts which would provide "upside pressure to the dollar"
Emerging markets: Bullish for 4-6 years, potentially up to a decade
Iron ore: "Good entry point" at current levels after recent strength

Assets Discussed

Crude oil (XOP): BULLISH - "looks fantastic," broken out of squeeze pattern, up 1%
Gold/Silver: NEUTRAL - "not a fan of this chart" for upward move, expects short-term consolidation
GDX/GDXJ/SILJ (gold/silver miners): CAUTIOUS - "not a buy point up here" after vertical rallies, waiting for retest
Platinum: Up 4% but expects consolidation
Palladium: BEARISH short-term - "inverted bloody nose" continuation pattern lower
Copper (COPX): BULLISH - in consolidation box, "looks good," potential breakout setup
Nickel: BULLISH - "trying to break and run" on flag pattern
Uranium (URNM, URA, Sprott SRUUF): BULLISH - all in uptrends, "everything looks good"
Iron ore: BULLISH - "good entry point" at current levels
Bitcoin/Ethereum: BULLISH short-term - "bottoming and going to head higher," up 7-8%
Emerging markets (EEM): BULLISH - current pullback is "just a retest," long-term bullish
Baltic Dry Index: BULLISH - "going to go way up"

Risk Factors

Vertical rallies in precious metals miners create poor risk/reward entries; pullbacks needed
Natural gas entering "shoulder season" between heating/cooling—expects choppy sideways action
Homebuilders (XHB) require lower rates to break out, but yields are rising instead
High volatility in coal futures creates short-term uncertainty

Notable Quotes

"If you are buying up after these vertical moves, you might want to check your strategy. That's all I'm going to say."
"I was a bull down here. I'm a bull everywhere above here" (referring to Baltic Dry Index and broader commodity complex)

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