Source: Finding Finance | Date: March 02, 2026

Investment Research Summary: Commodities Technical Analysis

Video: Finding Finance - Commodities Update (Technical Analysis)

Investment Thesis

With yields and the dollar strengthening, oil is breaking out bullishly alongside uranium, while precious metals show vulnerability to short-term consolidation despite long-term uptrends remaining intact.

Sentiment

BULLISH (on oil and uranium)

Time Horizon

SHORT-TERM (weeks)

Key Takeaways

Oil breaking out at $67+ with strong 6.5% gain; technical pattern suggests sustained bull move starting
Uranium showing strength (+4-5% across uranium stocks) and historically correlates with oil moves
Precious metals vulnerable despite recent surge: vertical moves into big red reversal candles suggest consolidation/pullback likely before next leg up
Yield curve re-inverting (2yr/10yr spread up 0.52) which historically favors oil over precious metals in short term
Dollar and yield breakouts creating headwinds for metals but not necessarily breaking commodity currencies' relative strength

Market Views

Price Targets/Levels:

Oil: Potential gap fill/retest at $67 support before continuing higher
Gold: Recently up ~$100/oz but vulnerable to pullback from current levels
Silver: Down 3.15%, showing selling pressure after vertical move

Key Macro Factors:

2-year yields up 2.9% with "big bullish engulfing candlestick"
10-year yields up 2.36% reversing off support
Yield curve re-inversion occurring
Dollar breaking out (bearish for commodities short-term, but commodity currencies may still outperform)
European gas crisis (TTF gas +36% after Qatar shutdown mentioned)

Assets Discussed

Energy (Bullish):

Crude Oil - BULLISH (up 6.5%, breaking out)
XOP (oil & gas exploration) - BULLISH (up 3.8%, breaking neckline)
OIH (oil services) - BULLISH (slightly down but above support)
TTF Gas (European natural gas) - BULLISH (up 36% on supply disruption)
Newcastle Coal - BULLISH (up 8.6%)

Uranium (Bullish):

SRUUF (Sprott Physical Uranium) - BULLISH (up 4.3%)
URA (uranium ETF) - BULLISH (up 3.88%)
URM - BULLISH (up 5%)
URJ - BULLISH (up 4.6%)

Precious Metals (Cautious/Neutral Short-term):

Gold (GLD) - NEUTRAL (up $100/oz but showing big selling pressure candle)
Silver - BEARISH SHORT-TERM (down 3.15%, "big red reversal wick")
GDX/GDXJ (gold miners) - NEUTRAL (slight pullback, watching for consolidation)
Platinum/Palladium - BEARISH SHORT-TERM (two big red candles, small green follow-through)

Base Metals:

Nickel - BULLISH (breaking out of flag pattern)
Copper - NEUTRAL (down 1.5%, choppy consolidation, no breakout yet)
Lithium - BULLISH (retesting, gap-down reversal looks good)
Aluminum - BULLISH (up 1.4%, breaking trend line)

Other:

Bitcoin - BULLISH (up 5.5%, attempting breakout)
Ethereum - BULLISH (up 5.16%, looks good to break out)

Risk Factors

Precious metals vertical moves into reversal candles: Rising wedge patterns on small green candles typically break lower; risk of "inverted flag pattern" and significant pullback after parabolic moves
Higher yields/stronger dollar headwind: Could pressure commodity currencies and metals; traditional negative correlation to precious metals
Central bank intervention possibility: Creator mentions "outside hand" could implement QE to suppress yields, changing the entire macro setup

Notable Quotes

"When yields drop, generally you get a little bit more stimulation into the economy. And we had yields move substantially upward with the dollar. So I think that weighed on iron ore here a little bit in the short term."
"I do not like this big red candlestick. I mean, especially after you've gone vertical. You go vertical, boom, boom, boom, and then you get the big, you know, selling pressure reversal wick at the top." [on silver]

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