Source: Palisade Radio | Date: March 02, 2026

Investment Research Summary: Adrian Day on Gold & Commodities

Investment Thesis

Central bank de-dollarization and Tether's gold-backed stablecoin create structural, price-insensitive demand for gold while gold equities remain undervalued despite record prices. Broader commodity complex trades at 100-year lows relative to financial assets after 15 years of underinvestment.

Sentiment

BULLISH

Time Horizon

LONG-TERM (3-10 years based on historical gold cycles)

Key Takeaways

Gold bull markets historically last ~10 years; current cycle started 2022-2023, likely years remaining
Central banks hold 48% reserves in USD (down from 78% in 2000) and continue selling dollars to buy gold
Tether's gold-backed stablecoin could match growth of dollar stablecoin, creating massive new demand
Gold miners like Agnico Eagle remain undervalued on price-to-free-cash-flow despite stock price gains
Foreign equity markets (ex-US) outperformed US by ~100% in 2024, marking potential decade-long leadership shift

Market Views

Gold: Multi-year upside remains; lack of retail/generalist participation means top is not in
Silver: Physical deficit exists but faces substitution risk at $100; more volatile than gold
Oil: Trading at "extremely cheap" levels vs gold; 15 years of underinvestment; potential for $140-150 (2011 levels)
Copper: Severe supply constraints; 5-year visibility shows demand will exceed supply even with new projects
Commodities broadly: Trading at 100-year lows vs financial assets
US equities: Overvalued relative to foreign markets after 15-year outperformance streak

Assets Discussed

Agnico Eagle (AEM) - Bullish; clean operator, can maintain dividend even if gold drops 50%
Barrick/Newmont - Neutral/Bullish; quality names but Agnico preferred as cleaner example
B2 Gold, Fortuna Silver, Discovery - Bullish; multi-jurisdictional mid-tiers
Franco Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals - Bullish; highest quality, long-term hold
Exxon/Chevron - Neutral; not particularly cheap but safe for conservative investors
EOG Resources, Devon, Canadian Natural Resources - Bullish; preferred energy exposure
Tether (USDT/Gold stablecoin) - Bullish structural driver; bought more gold than any central bank in 2024
British, Singapore, Hong Kong equities - Bullish; finding value in export-oriented companies

Risk Factors

Silver faces industrial substitution risk at higher prices; solar panel manufacturers seeking efficiency
Retail mania in China (especially silver) can reverse as quickly as it develops
Gold pullback to $3,600-4,000 would significantly impact mining equities even if fundamentals remain intact

Notable Quotes

"Having basically half your assets in the dollar is still too much."
"We're over the point where people are saying, 'Oh my gosh, gold to 4,000. Let's dump it.'"
"Commodities trading at 100-year lows relative to financial assets... that's phenomenal."

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