Some thoughts on BTC and silver

Source: Luke Gromen FFTT | Date: December 21, 2025

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is the "equity tranche" in a highly leveraged global system facing exponential deflationary pressures from AI/robotics
Bitcoin trades like a high beta tech stock during deflation, not as a neutral reserve asset as previously expected
Silver has very attractive supply/demand fundamentals that are likely to improve further
Nuclear-level monetary printing (COVID-scale) is needed to offset exponential deflation, but won't come in Q1 2026
AI and robotics will cause significant employment disruption within 6-12 months, particularly affecting entry-level jobs

Near-term bearish on Bitcoin - expects to buy back cheaper due to deflationary pressures
Bullish on silver long-term - supply/demand situation "very attractive and likely to get even more attractive"
Gold/silver ratio prediction has been "dead wrong" - ratio not rising as expected
Key reversal condition: Only COVID-level printing in Q1 2026 would make him wrong on Bitcoin bearishness

Bitcoin: Sold most position, keeping some; views as equity tranche vulnerable to deflation
Silver: Bullish due to strong fundamentals and supply constraints
Gold: Would be neutral reserve asset in true multipolarity scenario
Yuan: Strengthening meaningfully against dollar in 2024
US tech stocks: Facing issues with capital costs, AI constraints, and Chinese competition

"Bitcoin is the last functioning smoke alarm of liquidity... Bitcoin's the equity tranche and since the deflationary pressures of AI and robotics are exponential, anything less than nuclear printing is effectively tightening."
"Humans are simply not wired to adjust to how fast things are moving with technology and in our economy... it's just really important to be flexible, be strong of mind, be open of mind."

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