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Resource markets way up, but still undervalued relative to stocks and bonds. AIA

Source: Actionable Intelligence Alert | Date: January 24, 2026

AIA Weekly Update 1/24 - Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Resource markets undervalued: Despite recent gains, commodities remain significantly undervalued relative to stocks and bonds after 40+ years of underperformance during the financialization era
  • Generational wealth opportunity: The current Cold War III scenario and commodity supercycle represents a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity" for young investors to create generational wealth over the next 5-10 years
  • World bifurcation: Global order splitting into three major blocks (Western Hemisphere, China/Asia, Russia/Eurasia) driving critical mineral shortages and forcing massive infrastructure investments
  • Critical mineral crisis: US dependence on foreign sources for essential materials (produces only 400k lbs of enriched uranium vs 40M lbs needed annually) creates urgent national security imperative
  • Commodity supercycle confirmed: Multiple commodities breaking out simultaneously with silver hitting $100, suggesting broader resource bull market is just beginning

Market Views

  • Uranium: Expected to trade "well above $100/pound this year" and continue higher, potentially reaching "hundreds of dollars" due to severe supply/demand imbalance
  • Oil: Predicts "$200 oil on the horizon" as part of commodity supercycle, despite current consolidation
  • Silver: Warns of potential pullback to $75-80 after hitting $100 to "shake out" speculative money before continuing higher
  • Gold: Continuation of central bank buying trend supporting ongoing bull market
  • Copper: Expected significant upside with Friedland's "telescope needed to see how high" projection

Assets Discussed

  • Kazatomprom: Reaching peak production with new tax structure creating production disincentives, signaling value-over-volume strategy
  • Brazil ETF: Breaking out of 15-year downtrend, bullish on Latin American markets
  • Physical silver: Sold large position due to trading difficulties and spread issues with dealers
  • Polish zloty/economy: Positioning as future EU manufacturing hub with smart energy and immigration policies
  • Interactive Brokers: Now offering direct Brazilian stock trading access

Notable Quotes

  • "We are in a cold World War III. These blocks are going to compete with each other... This is an opportunity of a lifetime."
  • "Kazakhstan mineral extraction tax creates a powerful disincentive for Kazatomprom to increase production... the state is signaling a pivot from volume strategy to a value strategy."

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