Source: Palisade Radio | Date: January 22, 2026

Josh Young: The Iran War, Massive Bull Run in Oil & How To Find 10x to 20x Opportunities

Key Takeaways

Iran conflict risk severely underpriced: 1-20 million barrels/day at risk through Strait of Hormuz disruption, yet oil markets show "almost negative risk pricing"
US shale at breaking point: Continental Resources (Harold Hamm) stopped drilling in Bakken at ~$60 WTI, indicating marginal producers shutting down
Demand surprisingly strong: Recent data shows oil demand up 2.4 million barrels/day year-over-year, driven by currency debasement making $60 oil equivalent to $40 oil a decade ago
Exploration/investment collapse: Offshore drilling boom failed to materialize, older drill ships being scrapped, creating future supply constraints

Oil fair value: $80-90 WTI needed for sustainable US shale operations
Demand destruction pricing: Would require oil at $250+ (vs current ~$60) to meaningfully reduce consumption
Election year stimulus: Expects continued consumer support through populist policies and stimulus measures in 2026
China reserves theory: Suggests China may be overstating oil storage levels to manipulate prices downward

WTI Crude: Currently ~$60, discussing potential move to $100+ on geopolitical events
Continental Resources: Stopped Bakken drilling operations at current prices
Silver: Called $100 target (hit in Shanghai), comparing setup to current oil situation
LNG exports: Trump administration prioritizing expansion, unlikely to restrict exports to China

"Maybe the match has already been lit and the fuse is already burning" - on Iran conflict escalation risk
"We're burning the furniture. We're sort of cannibalizing a lot of the reserves that were discovered in prior years and prior decades" - on current energy investment cycle

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